No Clear and Present Danger
A Skeptical View of the U.S. Entry into World War II
Harper & Row, 1972
Bruce M. Russett
Chapter 4
From the
North Atlantic to the Tonkin Gulf
Nonbelligerent assistance
In retrospect, the
fear that America would be left alone in the world against two great
victorious empires in Europe and Asia seems terribly exaggerated.
Clear-cut victory was not in prospect for either, nor does the assumption
that they could long have maintained a close alliance seem especially
plausible. The critical American mistake may well have been in backing
the Japanese into a corner, for without war in the Pacific the American
conflict with Germany very possibly could have been held to limited naval
engagements, but no clash of ground troops. In short, we might at most
have fought a limited war.
These conclusions
are highly speculative; the situation of the time cannot be reproduced for
another run, searching for an alternate future. Perhaps I underestimate
the risks that an American determination to avoid war would have
entailed. On the other hand, the proposition that the war was
unnecessary—in a real sense premature, fought before the need was
sufficiently clearly established, though the need might well have become
apparent later—is worth considering. Just possibly the isolationists were
right in their essential perspective.
This last may be
unpalatable, especially because the intellectual company of some of the
most famous isolationists—William Borah, Hiram Johnson, and Burton
Wheeler—is not very distinguished. Others like Father Coughlin were
homegrown fascists, or, like Charles Lindbergh, are remembered as naive
admirers of Germany. But once more, I do not imagine that the United
States should have carried on blithely in 1941 as though nothing were
happening elsewhere in the world. Complete isolation would have been much
worse than intervention. All Americans would agree that American
strategic interests required substantial assistance to the belligerents
against Germany. Both Britain and Russia had to be preserved as
independent and powerful states. With a little less certainty I would
also grant the need to keep a significant portion of China viable.
It seems, however,
that those goals could have been achieved by the belligerents themselves,
with great American economic and noncombatant military aid. As insurance,
American rearmament had to go on. A sustained defense effort not less
than what was later accepted during the cold war would have been required.
That would imply 10 percent of the American GNP devoted to military
purposes, as compared with about that amount actually expended in 1941 and
a mere one and one-half percent in 1939. That much, incidentally, would
with Lend-Lease have been quite enough to revive the economy from the
depression and assuredly does not imply idle resources.
With this
prescription I find myself at odds with the extreme critics of Roosevelt’s
policy, men who spoke at that time and again, briefly, after the war.
Most of the President’s military and economic acts seem appropriate and,
indeed, necessary. I have no quarrel with the decisions for rearmament or
to institute Selective Service, with revision of the Neutrality Act to
permit “cash-and-carry” by belligerents (effectively by the Allies only),
with the destroyers-for-bases exchange, with Lend-Lease, or with the
decision to convoy American vessels as far as Iceland. Even the famous
“shoot-on-sight” order, even as interpreted to allow American destroyers
to seek out the sight of U-boats, seems necessary if the convoys were to
be protected on the first stage of the critical lifeline to Britain. I do
have some serious reservations about the way in which those decisions were
publicly justified, a matter for discussion below. But the content of
those decisions seems fully defensible. And irritating as they surely
were, Hitler would probably have continued to tolerate them in preference
to more active American involvement.
Only two major
exceptions to the content of American policy in 1941 appear worth
registering. One is the vote by Congress in mid-November 1941, at the
President’s behest, removing nearly all the remaining restrictions of the
Neutrality Act. It permitted American ships to carry supplies all the way
across the Atlantic, instead of merely as far as Iceland. This almost
certainly would have been too much for Hitler to bear. Had he allowed
American ships to claim the benefits of neutrality and arrive unmolested
in Britain, his entire effort to force British capitulation by naval
warfare would have collapsed. The more American, rather than British,
vessels carried cargoes the more ineffective the submarine campaign would
have become. The situation would have required great self-restraint—a
trait for which Hitler was not noted—and a willingness on all sides to
envision a compromise peace as the outcome. Probably that willingness
could not have emerged so quickly. More likely Hitler would have felt
obliged to order his submarine commanders to attack all American shipping,
instead of merely replying if attacked by American escort ships. The
change would have precipitated heavy American merchant losses rather than
just the occasional incident, usually involving warships, implied by the
previous policy. That in turn might well have demanded more
self-restraint by Roosevelt than was possible in the American political
system, even if he had wanted very badly to avoid war. In short, the new
American policy probably would have led in a few months to open, declared
conflict. But as to whether that final step was necessary, as part of a
plan to preserve an independent Britain for an ultimate negotiated
settlement, I remain unconvinced.
The other and still
more serious exception I take is with President Roosevelt’s policy toward
Japan as described in the previous chapter. It was neither necessary nor
desirable for him to have insisted on a Japanese withdrawal from China.
An agreement for a standstill would have been enough, and he did not make
an honest diplomatic attempt to achieve it. He refused to meet Prince
Konoye in the Pacific to work out a compromise, and after Konoye’s fall he
rejected, on Hull’s advice, a draft proposal that could have served as a
basis for compromise with the Japanese. We have no guarantee that
agreement could have been reached, but there was at least some chance and
the effort was not made.
Worst case analysis
Several very serious
objections to my view of a viable American policy can still be offered.
The first is that I have minimized the dangers that would have been
implied by a successful American effort to stay out of the war. My reply
is essentially that the fundamental power balance in the world was more
stable than many thought it to be. More generally, the argument could be
extended to the cold war period, when I think we often took on the Chicken
Little syndrome, exaggerating the threat to that stability in the face of
every immediate crisis, coup, or distant war. (“The sky is falling! Run
and tell the President!”) Roosevelt’s own words, though exaggerated, may
have even more value than he thought: “We have nothing to fear but fear
itself.”
Cold war, and
especially overt international violence, provides a condition of
heightened fears, a fog of war in which everyone is especially likely to
overrate the threat an enemy constitutes. At the beginning of World War
II, for instance, British and American intelligence estimates of German
war production were exaggerated by 50 to 100 percent.1
In 1941 perhaps any
possibility, however slim, of a true German victory was so
undesirable as to justify intervention. Neither that nightmare, nor the
retrospective chance of a Nazi government equipped with nuclear weapons,
is one with which Americans could rest complacently. But we must always
weigh possible outcomes by what we think is the probability that they will
occur. Otherwise we fall victim to “worst case analysis,” always trying
desperately to avoid the worst regardless of how unlikely it is to happen
even without our efforts. Death or mangling in a traffic accident is a
possibility every time we step into an automobile. Most of us are
nevertheless usually willing to take that risk rather than accept the far
more likely losses to be incurred by giving up normal mobility for
business and pleasure. Yet in analyzing international politics we
sometimes forget this lesson.
During the past
decade, members of the Administration in Washington decided that if a Viet
Cong government ever took power in Saigon it might well set in motion a
row of falling dominoes throughout Southeast Asia, as one non-Communist
government after another tumbled. Before long the result might have been
a set of Chinese or Russian-dominated governments, hostile to American
interests, in the entire area. To avoid such an undesirable outcome they
introduced a massive American military force. What was perhaps not asked,
however, was whether another outcome which even they would consider nearly
as undesirable—the quagmire—was even more likely to happen in the event of
intervention than was the fall of dominoes in the absence of American
military action. Thus by seeking to foreclose one very bad but improbable
outcome in Asia the United States government made another one much more
likely. Such action was probably encouraged by a simple-minded, and
erroneous, use of the game theory principle of “minimax.” That principle
advises one to choose a strategy so as to minimize the chance of getting
the outcome you regard as worst—but properly understood it does not mean
bending all efforts to avoid very bad but very improbable events.
What is more, no
comprehensive analysis of the broader costs and gains of fighting in
Vietnam seems to have been made anywhere in the government. Narrow
quantitative studies of body counts and controlled hamlets, made by
systems analysts in the Pentagon, have been much blamed for the Vietnam
fiasco. True, they often were naive or based on fabricated “information.”
Yet in a myopic perspective of systems analysis the Vietnam war can be
considered something of a success. The minimal goal, to maintain an
anti-Communist government in Saigon, has been met for a decade despite the
incompetence and unpopularity of that government. A narrow
analysis of military and political conditions necessary to achieve such an
outcome would not deal with the broader political, economic, and moral
costs of the war, to Vietnam and to the United States. It is the job of
analysts elsewhere in the decision-making system—in the White House, the
State Department—even Congress and the academic community—to measure those
broader costs and to weigh their acceptability. But of course that
broader evaluation was never properly undertaken either by policy-makers
or by social scientists. Nor indeed was anything like such an analysis
undertaken at the time of American entry into World War II. Strategic and
political assumptions about the postwar world were left for improvisation
or retrospective rancor.
Naval action in the
North Atlantic, with American destroyers dropping depth-charges on German
submarines and receiving torpedoes in turn, constituted America’s first
limited war. Another objection is that such a war could not, politically,
have long continued. No doctrine for fighting limited war existed.
Americans thought peace and war to be antithetical. Woodrow Wilson had
felt impelled, despite his preferences, to declare war on Germany in 1917
over the issue of unrestricted submarine warfare. Very possibly it would
have proved politically impossible to sustain long a policy of limited war
in 1941 and 1942. The experience of the 1950s in which Americans did
fight such a war against hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops, was
still in the future—though it was to demonstrate how a conflict could be
controlled if the will was there. The scenario I have put forth for the
1940s, one of rearmament, assistance, but careful avoidance of
belligerency barring a true collapse of one of the major allies, would
have required enormous political skill and possibly a quality of political
support that did not exist in the country. Perhaps any idea of “fighting
to the last ally” would have been too “cynical” to survive public debate.
A few isolationists opposed both rearmament and aid to the allies, both
of which were essential pillars in the policy I suggest. This last
difficulty particularly demanded a candid discussion of foreign policy
options, a discussion that Roosevelt never really led.
A
broad coalition
Nevertheless, it is
a mistake to lump all “isolationists” together as uniform advocates of a
single policy. The opponents of American participation in the war
included such a diverse lot as Oswald Garrison Villard, Socialist leader
Norman Thomas, economist Stuart Chase, University of Chicago President
Robert Hutchins, progressive Senators Borah, Johnson, LaFollette, and
Wheeler, United Mine Workers leader John L. Lewis, former President
Hoover, and conservative Senators like Robert A. Taft and Arthur
Vandenberg. (The breadth of the anti-interventionist coalition in 1940
suggests the possibility of a similar broad-based coalition, including
many from the right, emerging against intervention in the 1970s.)
Certainly they all shared the view that Germany and Japan did not
constitute a clear and present military danger to the United States. But
many “isolationists” supported most or all of the proposed military
buildup; the others offered no substantial opposition. Lindbergh wanted
to “arm to the teeth.” As one historian has told us:
Isolationists
displayed no unanimity in their stand on specific defense measures. They
made no concerted effort to block expansion of America’s armed forces,
however. Many isolationists, in fact, became ardent champions of the
strongest possible defense and, occasionally, outdid the Administration in
their efforts to improve America’s military capabilities.2
With a single
exception to be explained shortly, during the years 1939-1941 army and
navy appropriations passed virtually unanimously, despite the numerical
strength of those in Congress who opposed entry into the war. Most
isolationists even were willing to give some aid to Britain. They opposed
Lend-Lease, but proposed instead a two-billion dollar loan to help the
British war effort, as a less sweeping commitment. A financial loan would
not give the president power, as Lend-Lease did, to integrate the American
economy with the British war effort, nor would it tempt him to act with
American naval forces so as to insure the safe arrival of actual goods to
be lent or leased.3 Whether
the substitute represented a deep-seated willingness to maintain Britain,
or merely a political response from a desire to appear positive, is
unimportant. The necessary political base for some substantial assistance
to the British and later the Russians was there. And from many quarters
Roosevelt heard the advice that while doing so, and fortifying the Western
Hemisphere, he should allow Germany and Russia to exhaust each other.
Only two kinds of
preparedness measures proposed by the Administration were fought by many
isolationists; some naval construction, and Selective Service. The
opposition to certain naval expenditures came early, in 1938, and faded
thereafter. It stemmed from fears that a big navy would only be used to
involve the United States in a distant war. This in turn was rooted in a
long-term suspicion by many liberal isolationists of foreign trade and
investments as a source of danger. Charles Beard saw the United States
as potentially able to achieve economic near-sufficiency; he feared a big
navy would be demanded to defend trade and therefore wanted trade reduced
to a minimum.4 Similarly,
the Naval Construction Bill of 1939 initially included appropriations for
developing the base on Guam. The isolationists feared such an act would
antagonize the Japanese—but they did not oppose similar funds for projects
on Wake and Midway Islands, closer to the United States. They wanted a
navy capable of protecting the Western Hemisphere, but not able to embark
on further adventures.5
Opposition to renewal of Selective Service in 1941 centered less on the
draft than on the possibility that conscripts might be sent overseas.
Thus the political
climate was not nearly so hostile to rearmament and aid short of war as we
may imagine. The same can be said of the public at large. As early as
January 1939, a Gallup poll found 65 percent of the population anxious to
spend more for defense. Throughout 1941 approximately the same proportion
consistently, in repeated polls, were solidly in favor of aid to Britain.
In fact, they declared it was “more important to help England than to
keep out of war.” Almost every survey found more than half the population
approving Roosevelt’s actions in helping Britain; another 20 percent felt
he had not gone far enough.6
Franklin Roosevelt therefore was pursuing a policy that was both
politically viable and sufficient to keep the Allies in the war. Only
toward the end of 1941, in dealing with both Germany and Japan, did his
decisions lead inevitably to war.
The
cost of intervention
If American
intervention in World War II was otherwise avoidable and unnecessary, then
what were its costs? I do not think participation was a grave error in
the sense that most Americans are very much worse off, in directly
traceable consequence, than they otherwise would be. But the costs were
serious and must be set against the presumed gains.
American battle
casualties were relatively light—fewer than 300,000 men killed, a
figure less than 10 percent of German losses, or less than 5 percent of
Russian military casualties alone. Yet that many deaths can hardly be
forgotten. Furthermore, in World War II the United States used up
important natural resources, especially oil and metals, that can never be
replaced. For example, America is now dependent on imports of iron ore
following exhaustion of the great Mesabi iron range in Minnesota. The
dream of continental self-sufficiency was much less far-fetched to the
isolationists of 1940 than it can ever be again, in part because of the
exertions World War II imposed. A greater loss is probably the damage to
the world’s physical environment which the conduct of World War II
accelerated and which we have continued with the preparations for further
wars.
Moreover, World War
II left some undesirable legacies in American thought patterns. One may
be the illusion that Asians can always be beaten in war, even when the
main American effort is concentrated on the European theatre. Another may
be a habit of intervention, of putting American military effort
prematurely into the scales to prevent the buildup of hostile power even
in the remote future. Nothing fails like success. And the strategy of
gradual escalation of pressures against a weaker opponent, applied so
disastrously to Japan, returned in Vietnam.
Yet another is the
corrupting effect actual conduct of the conflict had on our view of what
constituted morally permissible acts in warfare. For the first year of
the war urban areas of the major combatants were largely spared. (There
were some exceptions for the smaller states, notably the case of Rotterdam
in May 1940.) President Roosevelt characterized the earliest, and
mildest, German air attacks as “inhuman barbarism that has profoundly
shocked the conscience of humanity.”7
But as the war dragged on German planes bombed British cities in the
Blitz and the British habitually attacked German urban centers at night
when precision bombing was impossible, deliberately directing many of
their strikes against residential areas for their effect on popular
morale. Another myth that needs revision is that the Germans initiated
such attacks; on the contrary, Churchill can also be give some credit for
the breakdown of previous restraints on bombing civilians.8
American bombing raids on Germany as a rule—though there were notable
exceptions—attempted to concentrate on industrial targets and were largely
conducted during daylight hours.
But if Americans can
claim a few credits for restraint in the air war over Europe, the firebomb
raids on Japanese cities (in which a ring of fire was carefully built to
trap people inside) remove much virtue from that account. The horrors of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a direct outgrowth of the firebombing
precedent. After the war all restraints were forgotten. On the basis of
their own actions against Japan, American military planners simply assumed
that in future wars nuclear weapons would be used against cities to
destroy the enemy’s economy, society, and popular morale. This strategy
was basically unquestioned until the late 1950s, in other countries as
well as in the United States. It remains essentially in force, and thus
the current ever-present nuclear threat to American cities is an
inheritance from our, and other nations’, acts in World War II.
Another direct
legacy has been the American conduct of war from the air in South Vietnam,
napalming villages and suburban areas and the leveling of large tracts of
the city of Hue. Nor were the corruptions of war limited to the behavior
of airmen. Atrocities committed by Americans against Japanese, as well as
vice-versa, gave frightening premonitions of My Lai.9
American soldiers commonly refused to take prisoners in the Pacific.
Material costs too
must be considered. Even at the end of the New Deal some contemporary
observers thought that military preparations endangered continued
attention to American domestic needs. The “continentalists,” in the words
of two of them, objected to:
lecturing other
nations, constantly stirring up in effect, warlike emotions, and using the
power of the United States to force any scheme of politics or economy on
other peoples. They especially opposed, as distracting and dangerous to
domestic life, the propagation of the idea that any mere foreign policy
could in any material respect reduce the amount of degrading poverty in
the United States, set the American economy in full motion, or
substantially add to the well-being of the American people. Foreign
policy, they held, could easily be made the instrument to stifle domestic
wrongs under a blanket of militarist chauvinism, perhaps disguised by the
high-sounding title of world peace.10
There is an
unfortunate coincidence between participation in war and the death of
attempts at domestic reform in the twentieth century. World War I marked
the end of Wilson’s New Freedom. Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty was one
of the first casualties of his war on the Viet Congo. And World War II,
on top of the 1938 election, ended the New Deal.
True enough, the
United States has undertaken heavy and long-term military efforts without
the emergence of a Garrison State. Yet the American economy, and the
political system, have paid a real price for heavy military expenditure in
an atmosphere of grave external threat. On the material side, these costs
include a relative neglect of physical and social investment. Military
expenditure has to come at the expense of some other kind of spending,
public or private. Over the past 30 years, some of the price has indeed
been paid by immediate personal consumption. But proportionately the
impact on investment—capital formation—has been very much greater. Public
spending for education and health have suffered heavily too, and these
statements apply to the exertions of World War II as well as to the cold
war years. Americans are somewhat poorer, more ignorant, and less healthy
than they would be if the military spending had not been necessary, or
deemed necessary.
The feeling of need
for constant vigilance against threats, domestic as well as foreign,
represents a political cost. At least some kinds of military spending are
closely associated with “conservative,” hawkish, strongly anticommunist
attitudes among our political leaders. Legislators whose states benefit
from disproportionate shares of spending for military installations are
quite likely to be foreign policy hard-liners. The effect of heavy
military spending is to shift the nation’s political center of gravity to
the right.
Similarly, the
devastation of previous strong restraints on military spending can be
traced to the World War II period. Before 1939 the armed forces included
only about a quarter of a million men. The country had a tradition of
close scrutiny of military budgets and suspicion of peacetime army that
was very different from the latitude given the armed forces during the
cold war. But at no point since the end of the war have fewer than
1,400,000 Americans been under arms. Of course, the cold war and
Soviet-American arms race were substantially responsible for this
development, but a standard American pattern of wartime military expansion
and only partial postwar contraction was also at work. The
Spanish-American War, World War I, and the Korean War each produced a
virtual and permanent doubling of the armed forces over the size
characteristic of the preceding years. And it is not enough simply to
invoke the image of objective global responsibilities after each war.
While that explanation surely has some truth, Parkinson’s Law also comes
to mind. So too does an image of a political system where each war
weakened the restraints on the activities of military men and their
civilian allies. World War II, which lasted 44 months for the United
States and at its peak absorbed more than 40 percent of the national
product, unavoidably built a “military-industrial complex” that could not
easily be dismantled at war’s end.11
Similarly, the prosecution of the war required a system of higher taxes
and governmental control of the economy and society that has never been
entirely dismantled.
In fairness,
however, my alternative scenario for 1941 would have required heavy
defense spending and some of these same costs as were incurred by fighting
World War II. Whether the system has been more “healthy” with a great war
and then cold war from 1946 onward is subject only to speculation. I am
nevertheless inclined to believe that some of the excesses of the cold war
period have their roots in the World War II experience. One of the
greatest anxieties of liberal isolationists about intervention was that it
would permanently restrict political freedoms at home, that American
democracy could not survive sustained militarization. On April 13, 1940,
the New York Times quoted Beard as accusing J. Edgar Hoover of
setting up a “political bureau” in the Department of Justice, for the
purpose of indexing and spying upon persons charged with holding
objectionable but not illegal views in matters of politics and economics,
or engaging in activities of which he does not approve.12
Power and candor
The years 1940 and
1941 marked the first great exercise of a president’s powers as
Commander-in-Chief during peacetime. They represent a period when secret
military planning with the British became extremely close, and when
American naval forces were committed to actions that were sure to involve
them in hostilities. Restraints on the president’s execution of foreign
policy loosened and have never been restored. A good deal of controversy
over Roosevelt’s intentions raged during the 1940s, and still has not
entirely abated. Some extreme revisionists who published immediately
after the war accused him of seeking war with Germany and Japan,
and of deliberately inviting the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
Most historians
reject these extreme interpre-tations. Such charges about intentions
probably can never be substantiated or conclusively disproved, and they
have distracted us from more important questions like the one posed in
this essay—regardless of intentions, was the conflict in fact necessary?
One standard interpretation seems to be that Roosevelt decided at some
point, perhaps several years before Pearl Harbor, that the United States
would have to go to war. But isolationist sentiment was so powerful that
he felt unable to present the issue squarely to the people, and so
proceeded cautiously, step-by-step, to help the Allies as much as Congress
and the electorate would permit. According to this interpretation he is
to be faulted for never having frankly discussed his private conviction
that the United States should go to war to prevent Axis domination, and
the implications of his policy.
Some aspects of his
leadership seem chillingly familiar to those of us who have since listened
to Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, and Dean Rusk discuss their intentions
in Vietnam. The most famous incident occurred in FDR’s October 30
campaign address to an Irish-American audience in Boston, when he
declared, “I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again,
and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars.” At
the time he did worry a bit whether he could keep this promise, but
decided that the phrase “foreign wars” was too ambiguous to bind him. To
his speech-writer he remarked, “If we’re attacked it’s no longer a foreign
war.”13 Even so, we cannot
judge Roosevelt guilty of duplicity on this evidence. Most observers feel
that he still did not believe his assistance to Britain would lead to
all-out war, but rather continued to hope that British resistance,
sustained by America, would be enough to hold Hitler back. One historian
who has carefully considered the question remarks about Lend-Lease,
despite its almost unprecedentedly nonneutral nature: “. . . the president
felt with great sincerity that this policy would not lead to American
involvement but to a British victory that alone would keep the nation out
of war.” And later, “His own personal hatred of war was deep and genuine,
and it was this conviction that set him apart from men like Stimson and
Morgenthau, who decided that American participation was necessary in the
spring of 1941 . . . It is quite possible that Roosevelt never fully
committed himself to American involvement prior to Pearl Harbor.”14
But if Roosevelt is
acquitted of these charges, it is not possible to let him off so easily
for his acts on two other occasions. He certainly was not above
manipulating the facts about naval incidents in the North Atlantic, in a
way that provided a perfect precedent for his successor a generation
later. In September 1941 a German submarine fired two torpedoes, both
missing, at the American destroyer Greer. President Roosevelt responded,
in a radio broadcast, with the following description to the event as an
act of “piracy”: The Greer
was carrying
American mail to Iceland. . . . I tell you the blunt fact that the German
submarine fired first upon this American destroyer without warning, and
with deliberate design to sink her . . .
We have sought no
shooting war with Hitler. We do not seek it now. But neither do we want
peace so much that we are willing to pay for it by permitting him to
attack our naval and merchant ships while they are on legitimate business.15
It later emerged
that the “legitimate business” was that the Greer “had been
following the V-Boat for more than three hours and had been broadcasting
its position to nearby British naval units.”16
The second incident
occurred the following month when the destroyer
Kearny
was torpedoed. Although the ship was not sunk, eleven American sailors
were killed. In his subsequent radio address Roosevelt declared:
We have wished to
avoid shooting. But the shooting has started. And history has recorded
who fired the first shot. . .
America has been
attacked. The U.S.S. Kearny is not just a navy ship. She belongs
to every man, woman, and child in this Nation. . . . Hitler’s torpedo was
directed at every American, whether he lives on our seacoast or in the
innermost part of the Nation far from the sea and far from the guns and
tanks of the marching hordes of would-be-conquerors of the world.
The purpose of
Hitler’s attack was to frighten the American people off the high seas-to
force us to make a trembling retreat,17
What really happened
in this incident, where “history has recorded the first shot,” was
described two days later in a formal report by Secretary of the Navy Knox:
On the night of
October 16-17 the U.S.S. Kearny while escorting a convoy of
merchant ships received distress signals from another convoy which was
under attack from several submarines. The U.S.S. Kearny proceeded
to the aid of the attacked convoy. On arriving at the scene of the attack
the U.S.S. Kearny dropped depth bombs when she sighted a merchant
ship under attack by a submarine.18
Compare these
statements of Roosevelt with those of President Johnson in August 1964,
after two naval incidents in the Tonkin Gulf:
This new act of
aggression aimed directly at our forces again brings home to all of us in
the United States the importance of the struggle for peace and security in
Southeast Asia.
Aggression by terror
against peaceful villages of South Vietnam has now been joined by open
aggression on the high seas against the United States of America . . . We
Americans know-although others appear to forget—the risk of spreading
conflict. We still seek no wider war.19
Lyndon Johnson was
an avowed admirer of Franklin Roosevelt, and a young New Dealer before the
war. Did he, or his speechwriter, consciously draw on the earlier
experience?
Certainly he failed
to mention the clandestine American-sponsored air-attacks and South
Vietnamese naval actions against the North Vietnam coast that had been
conducted prior to the Tonkin Gulf Resolution. If Hanoi interpreted the
American destroyers’ presence in the Gulf as part of those actions, then
its response was something less than “open aggression.” Yet Johnson’s
reply was a severe air strike, then the predrafted Tonkin Gulf Resolution
and ultimately full-scale American intervention. In the subsequent
election campaign he lashed his opponent’s advocacy of a bombing campaign
even though his Administration had reached a consensus that heavy air
attacks on the North would in fact be necessary.20
In this context it
is worth quoting once again from Charles Beard who, though extreme and
sometimes blind in his hatred of Roosevelt, uttered some ringing
prophecies. If Roosevelt’s acts stand as precedent, he warned,
The President of the
United States in a campaign for reelection may publicly promise the people
to keep the country out of war and, after victory at the polls, may set
out secretly on a course designed or practically certain to bring war upon
the country.
He may, to secure
legislation in furtherance of his secret designs, misrepresent to Congress
and the people both its purport and the policy he intends to pursue under
its terms if and when such legislation is enacted . . .
He may publicly
represent to Congress and the people that acts of war have been committed
against the United States, when in reality the said acts were secretly
invited and even initiated by the armed forces of the United States under
his secret direction.21
Without accepting
the most insidious charges of those who attacked Franklin Roosevelt, it is
nevertheless clear that his actions as Commander-in-Chief, for a cause
that was generally popular, made similar acts by his successors much
easier. Recall again some of his initiatives, not submitted to Congress:
the destroyers-for-bases exchange by an executive agreement more important
than almost all of the nearly one thousand treaties that have been
submitted to the Senate; the order to American forces to occupy Iceland;
the order that American warships should convoy British as well as American
vessels in the North Atlantic, and later to “shoot on sight”—and to seek
out—German submarines. In these interpretations of his power Roosevelt
was hardly timid. Even one, like this author, who considers these steps,
at least, to have been in the immediate American interest, has some
qualms. We can allow one of Roosevelt’s firm sympathizers to sum up the
argument, though we may reach a different verdict:
Franklin Roosevelt
repeatedly deceived the American people during the period before Pearl
Harbor . . . He was like the physician who must tell the patient lies for
the patient’s own good. . . . A president who cannot entrust the people
with the truth betrays a certain lack of faith in the basic tenets of
democracy. But because the masses are notoriously shortsighted and
generally cannot see danger until it is at their throats, our statesmen
are forced to deceive them into an awareness of their own long-run
interests. This is clearly what Roosevelt had to do, and who shall say
that posterity will not thank him for it?22
Roosevelt, like
Johnson after him, not only was uncandid, but made his decisions within a
small circle of intimate advisers.
No
more Munichs
The theme of the
above quotation, “the masses are notoriously shortsighted and generally
cannot see danger until it is at their throats,” is typical of thousands
of writers and political figures. Preventive medicine was the
prescription; dangers must be faced at their inception, while the threat
is still small enough to be controlled. The lesson of Munich had to be
learned. The Allies had waited until very nearly too late to stand up to
Hitler; that mistake must not be repeated. Stalin had the same kind of
insatiable ambitions as Hitler, thus he must be stopped at the beginning.
It is astonishing how often, immediately after the war or even while it
still continued, Americans applied, or misapplied, the “lessons” of
dealing with Hitler.
Some samples of the
equation of Stalin with Hitler include James Forrestal, reporting Averell
Harriman’s comments that
the outward thrust
of communism was not dead and that we might well have to face an
ideological warfare just as vigorous and dangerous as fascism or Nazism.23
Forrestal himself,
sending Henry Luce a study by Edward Willett of the “real moral and
philosophical foundations of the Russian State”:
I realize it is easy
to ridicule the need for such a study as I have asked Willett to make, but
in the middle of that laughter we always should remember that we also
laughed at Hitler.24
Harry Truman
remarked that
the new menace
facing us seemed every bit as grave as Nazi Germany and her allies had
been.25
and James Byrnes,
Truman’s secretary of state:
they (Soviet
leaders) must learn what Hitler learned—that the world is not going to
permit one nation to veto peace on earth.26
Both Truman and
Johnson, in their later military moves into Korea and Vietnam, explicitly
invoked pre-World War II analogies. Truman’s thoughts, on hearing about
the North Korean attack, bear repeating:
In my generation
this was not the first occasion when the strong had attacked the weak. I
recalled some earlier instances: Manchuria, Ethiopia, Austria. I
remembered how each time that the democracies failed to act it had
encouraged the aggressors to keep going ahead. Communism was acting in
Korea just as Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese had acted ten, fifteen,
twenty years earlier . . . If this was allowed to go unchallenged it would
mean a third world war, just as similar incidents had brought on the
second world war.27
Woodrow Wilson had
reluctantly brought the United States into war in 1917, but because of
pervasive isolationist sentiment the peace was lost. Americans refused to
participate in a world collective security system, and allowed Germany to
break the peace once more. Truman also recalled,
I could never quite
forget the strong hold which isolationism had gained over our country
after World War I.
. . . I had a very
good picture of what a revival of American isolationism would mean for the
world. . . . Inaction, withdrawal, “Fortress America” notions could only
result in handing to the Russians vast areas of the globe now denied them.28
But after the second
war the forces within America who opposed an interventionist policy were
gravely depleted. Interventionists, having carried their policy to its
seemingly glorious conclusion, could hardly question its applicability in
a new situation. The arch-conservative isolationists of 1940 could now
change sides. Whereas they had been unable to find much enthusiasm for
war with Hitler, Communist Russia was quite another matter. And the
liberal isolationists were disarmed. In the early years of the cold war
all American liberals were required to demonstrate their loyalty and
freedom from any taint of pro-Communism. Many of the most ardent
reformers of the 1930s became the ardent cold warriors of the 1940s, what
one wag called, in lower case letters, “national socialists.” After
embracing a hard-line cold war policy they had little incentive to
question the wisdom of earlier global activism. In any case they strongly
identified with Franklin Roosevelt, and so hastened to defend him from the
exaggerated charges of his critics. Only a few eccentrics remained to
challenge an activist “containment” foreign policy in either its past or
its then–current form.
Revisionist
historians of the First World War played no small part in the general
revulsion from Europe’s quarrels that swept the United States during the
twenties. It was necessary to insure that a new isolationism was not fed
as the old one had been. The possibility was slight anyway, but just to
be certain a number of scholars, whose views on the war were not known to
be seriously at odds with the Administration’s, were provided with special
access to individuals and to files. Most of these scholars had worked for
the government during the war and could draw on their experiences and
contacts. Others—and even some of these same scholars, years later after
their access had expired—encountered the usual difficulties in trying to
see classified documents.29 Hence for a full generation a single approving view
has held sway among most academics as well as in the public at large.
It would of course
be unfair and inaccurate to trace all the developments cited in this
chapter, and especially the adoption of interventionist policies, only
back to 1940, just as it is wrong to think they emerged full-blown at the
beginning of the cold war. One can find roots in our earlier Caribbean
policy, in Woodrow Wilson’s acts, in the war of 1898, and even earlier.
But World War II, rather like monosodium glutamate, made pungent a host
of unsavory flavors that had until then been relatively subdued. We
cannot really extirpate contemporary “global policeman” conceptions from
American thinking unless we understand how, in World War II, they
developed and became deeply ingrained.
Notes
1
Klein, Germany’s Economic Preparations, pp. 101-02.
2
Jonas, Isolationism, pp. 129-30.
3
Warren I. Cohen, The American Revisionists (Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, 1967), pp. 241-43.
4
Jonas, Isolationism, p. 133. Also see Cohen, American
Revisionists, pp. 129-34.
5
See The Open Door at Home (New York: Macmillan, 1935), esp. pp.
213-14. Several years ago in “The Calculus of Deterrence,” Journal of
Conflict Resolution 7, no. 2 (June 1963): 97-109, I pointed out
evidence that if a small power was attacked, a big power defender was much
more likely to honor its previous commitment to come to its rescue if
there were close economic ties between the two. At that time I was
concerned about strengthening Atlantic deterrence against Soviet attack,
and thought promoting trade thus to have desirable political results.
6
Hadley Cantril, The Human Dimension: Experiences in Policy Research
(New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 1967), pp. 47, 50.
7
Quoted in Robert E. Osgood and Robert W. Tucker, Force, Order, and
Justice (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1967), p. 217.
8
George Quester, Deterrence Before
Hiroshima
(New York: Wiley, 1966), pp. 105-22.
9
For example, see Charles Lindbergh’s observations on duty in the South
Pacific, in The Wartime Journals of Charles A. Lindbergh (New York:
Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1970).
10
Charles A. Beard and Mary R. Beard,
America
in Mid-passage
(New York: Macmillan, 1939), p. 455.
11
Evidence on the preceding paragraphs is presented in Bruce Russett,
What Price Vigilance? The Burdens of National Defense (New Haven: Yale
University Press, 1970).
12
Cited in Cohen, American Revisionists, p. 226.
13
Samuel I. Rosenman, Working with
Roosevelt
(New York: Harper and Row, 1952), p. 242. Many writers have pointed to his
famous speech in 1937 calling for a “quarantine” of the aggressors as
evidence of an early and strong determination to resist even at great
cost. Recent evidence makes it appear unlikely that any such determination
was present. See Dorothy Borg, “Notes on Roosevelt’s ‘Quarantine’ Speech,”
in Robert A. Divine, ed., Causes and Consequences of World War II
(Chicago: Quadrangle, 1969), p. 47-70.
14
Robert A. Divine, Roosevelt and World War II (Baltimore; Penguin,
1970), pp. 40, 47-48.
15
New York Times, September 12, 1941, pp. 1,4.
16
Divine,
Roosevelt, p. 44.
17
New York Times, October 28, 1941, p. 4.
18
Ibid., October 30, p. 1.
19
New York Times, August 5, 1964, p. 1.
20
See The Pentagon Papers as edited by the New York Times (New
York: Bantam, 1971), Chapters 5 and 6.
21
Charles A. Beard, President Roosevelt and the Coming of War, 1941
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1948), pp. 582-84.
22
Thomas A. Bailey, The Man in the Street (New York: Macmillan,
1948), p. 13. Among many others who share essentially this conclusion, a
little less approvingly, are Richard Hofstadter, The Progressive
Historians: Turner, Beard and Parrington (New York: Knopf, 1968), pp.
336-37, and Robert E. Osgood, Ideals and Self-Interest in America’s
Foreign Relations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953), p.
412.
23
Walter Millis, ed., The Forrestal Diaries (New York: Viking, 1951),
p. 47. Diary entry of April 20, 1945.
24
Ibid.,
p. 128.
25
Harry S. Truman, Years of Trial and Hope (Garden City, New York:
Doubleday, 1956), p. 101.
26
James Byrnes, Speaking Frankly (New York: Harper and Row, 1947), p.
203·
27
Truman, Trial and Hope, pp. 332-33.
28
Ibid.,
pp. 101-02.
29
See
Herbert Feis, “The Shackled Historian,” Foreign Affairs 45, no. 2
(January 1967): 332-43.
Forward
to
Chapter 5: Force and Choice in the Environment of International Politics
Back to
Chapter 3: A Hobson’s Choice for Japan
Back to
Preface